Эмпирическая верификация концепции регионального лидерства на примере восходящих держав
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2023.304Аннотация
В отечественной и зарубежной научной литературе сложился консенсус относительно идентификации статуса восходящих государств как региональных лидеров. Чаще всего к восходящим государствам относят страны БРИКС. В последние годы стали выходить публикации, идентифицирующие страны МИКТА в качестве восходящих держав среднего уровня, одновременно с этим претендующих на статус региональных лидеров или уже являющихся таковыми. Цель статьи заключается в том, чтобы определить, насколько участие государств форматах БРИКС и МИКТА позволяет им укреплять свое региональное лидерство или претендовать на региональное лидерство. В рамках эмпирического исследования региональное лидерство государств БРИКС и МИКТА, с одной стороны, рассмотрено с точки зрения оценки материальных атрибутов силы посредством использования Сводного индекса национального потенциала. С другой стороны, мы исходим из конструктивистского подхода к понятию «лидерство». Такой подход позволяет рассматривать лидерство как сконструированную категорию, зависящую от признания державами иного порядка, принадлежащими к региону, легитимности статуса регионального лидера за тем или иным государством БРИКС и МИКТА. Методологически мы исходим из того, что категорию легитимности можно операционализировать посредством идентификации сплоченности голосования в ГА ООН государств БРИКС и МИКТА с государствами, принадлежащими к их регионам. Высокое значение среднего «индекса согласия» указывает на признание регионального лидерства стран-участников БРИКС и МИКТА государствами-последователями, принадлежащими к их регионам. На уровне гипотезы ожидается, что средние значения «индексов согласия», во-первых, будут равны и для стран БРИКС, и для стран МИКТА, во-вторых, примут высокие значения. Таким образом, в данной статье предполагается определить наличие корреляции между ресурсной обеспеченностью регионального лидерства государства и легитимностью такого лидерства.
Ключевые слова:
БРИКС, МИКТА, восходящие державы, региональное лидерство, региональная держава, Генеральная Ассамблея ООН, количественный анализ
Скачивания
Библиографические ссылки
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Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
