From unipolarity to G-Zero and beyond: Political economy of the world without superpowers
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2023.303Abstract
The erosion of the unipolar system of international relations, accelerated as a result of the turbulent events of 2022, is returning experts in the field of international relations to discuss the phenomenon of the balance of power and its embodiment in various models. During the thirty-year period, following the end of the Cold War (1991–2021), the system of interstate relations went through periods when unipolar, bipolar and multipolar models were considered optimal. This article, based on the author’s address at the plenary session of the First Saint-Petersburg Congress of International Studies, proposes a political and economic interpretation of the consequences that the member states of the world community will face at a new stage in the transformation of the modern architecture of international relations in the 21st century through the mechanism of the balance of power. The trend of reducing state power in comparison with the growing economic power of market institutions and business structures in the modern era has been replaced by a reverse trend. It is characterized by the “return of the state” against the backdrop of a global system in crisis. The absence of a hegemonic state in the new system leads to the destruction of the foundations of the international liberal order, the formation of a decentralized system of alliances of states, an increase in the number and scale of economic conflicts, expressed both in the formation of regional trade blocks and in the expansion of the practice of applying economic sanctions as a substitute for armed conflicts of the past. A new era in the political and economic development of the planet, in which new actors will replace the superpowers of the past, should be characterized as a period of competitive interdependence. The coming years will show what will prevail — competition, extolled by representatives of the realistic school of the theory of international relations, i. e. inter-country/inter-bloc rivalry, or interdependence raised to the shield by the liberals.
Keywords:
balance of power, international political economy, multipolarity, BRICS, G2, G-Zero
Downloads
References
Wight, M. (1978), Power Politics, Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014), Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: W. W. Norton and Co.
Waltz, K. N. (1959), Man, the State and War, New York: Columbia University Press.
Голдстоун, Дж. (2014), Почему Европа? Возвышение Запада в мировой истории, 1500–1850, М.: Изд-во Института Гайдара.
Ferguson, N. (2011), Civilization: The West and the Rest, Penguin Books.
Kelly, J. (2004), Gunpowder: Alchemy, Bombards, & Pyrotechnics: The History of the Explosive that Changed the World, New York: Basic Books.
Walter, D. (2017), Colonial Violence: European Empires and the Use of Force, London: Hurst Publishers.
Keohane, R. (1984), After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Strange, S. (1989), States and Markets: Introduction to International Political Economy, London: Pinter Publishers.
Bush, R. C. (2011), The United States and China: A G-2 in the Making? Brookings Institution, October 11. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-and-china-a-g-2-in-the-making (дата обращения: 15.11.2022).
Bremmer, I. and Roubini, N. (2011), A G-Zero World. The New Economic Club Will Produce Conflict, Not Cooperation, Foreign Affairs, March/April, p. 2–7.
Барабанов, О., Бордачёв, Т., Лисоволик, Я., Лукьянов, Ф., Сушенцов, А. и Тимофеев, И. (2022), Мир без сверхдержав, М.: Фонд развития и поддержки Международного дискуссионного клуба «Валдай», 2022.
Ткаченко, С. Л. (2021), Политическая экономия развития и становление институтов демократии, СПб.: Издательство СПбГЭУ.
Kindleberger, C. (1975), The World in Depression 1929–1939, Berkeley: University of California Press.
Бажан, А. (2019), Переводной рубль и расчеты между странами ЕАЭС, Современная Европа, № 6, c. 117–126.
Marchildon, G. P. (1995), From Pax Britannica to Pax Americana and Beyond, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 538, no. 1, pp. 151–168.
Минкова, К. В. (2021), Экономические истоки Холодной войны: советско-американские отношения в 1943–1947 гг., СПб.: СКИФИЯ-Принт.
Хиршман, А. О. (2012), Страсти и интересы: политические аргументы в пользу капитализма до его триумфа, М.: Изд-во Института Гайдара.
Búrca, G. de. (2018), Is EU Supranational Governance a Challenge to Liberal Constitutionalism?, The University of Chicago Law Review, vol. 85, no. 2, pp. 337–368.
Castells, M. (2009), The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, 2nd ed., London: Wiley-Blackwell.
Tkachenko, S. L. (2020), BRICS and Development Alternatives: Russia and China, in: Bianchini, S. and Fiori, A. (eds), Rekindling the Strong State in Russia and China: Domestic Dynamics and Foreign Policy Projections, Leiden, Boston: Brill, pp. 271–297.
De Robertis, A. G. and Tkachenko, S. (2021), The crisis of the “Liberal International Order” and the challenges from China and Russia, Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения, т. 13, вып. 4, с. 465–477. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2020.403
Bordachev, T. (2022), Europe, Russia and the Liberal World Order: International Relations after the Cold War, London: Routledge.
Tkachenko, S., Zhiglinskaya Wyrsch, N. and Zheng, C. (2022), Technology platform competition between the United States and China: Decoupling and sanctions against Huawei, Вестник Санкт- Петербургского университета. Международные отношения, т. 14, вып. 4, с. 378–392. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2021.401
US Department of the Treasury (2022), Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Way Forward for the Global Economy, April 13. URL: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0714 (дата обращения: 10.12.2022).
CHIPS and Science Act. H. R. 4346. PUBLIC LAW 117–167—AUG.9, 2022. 117th Congress. URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117thcongress/house-bill/4346/text (дата обращения: 16.12.2022).
Varas, A., Varadarajan, R., Goodrich, J. and Yinug, F. (2021), BCG and SIA report “Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. URL: https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/BCG-x-SIA-Strengthening-the-Global-Semiconductor-Value-Chain-April-2021_1.pdf (дата обращения: 22.01.2023).
References
Wight, M. (1978), Power Politics, Harmondsworth: Penguin Books.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014), Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: W. W. Norton and Co.
Waltz, K. N. (1959), Man, the State and War, New York: Columbia University Press.
Goldstone, G. (2014), Why Europe? Rise of the West in World History, 1500–1850. Moscow: Gaidar’s Institute Publishing House. (In Russian)
Ferguson, N. (2011), Civilization: The West and the Rest, Penguin Books.
Kelly, J. (2004), Gunpowder: Alchemy, Bombards, & Pyrotechnics: The History of the Explosive that Changed the World, New York: Basic Books.
Walter, D. (2017), Colonial Violence: European Empires and the Use of Force, London: Hurst Publishers.
Keohane, R. (1984), After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Strange, S. (1989), States and Markets: Introduction to International Political Economy, London: Pinter Publishers.
Bush, R. C. (2011), The United States and China: A G-2 in the Making? Brookings Institution, October 11. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-and-china-a-g-2-in-the-making (accessed: 15.11.2022).
Bremmer, I. and Roubini, N. (2011), A G-Zero World. The New Economic Club Will Produce Conflict, Not Cooperation, Foreign Affairs, March/April, pp. 2–7.
Barabanov, O., Bordachev, T., Lisovolik, Ya., Lukyanov, F., Sushentsov, A. and Timofeev, I. (2022), World without Superpowers, Moscow: Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai International Discussion. (In Russian)
Tkachenko, S. (2021), Political Economy of Development and Formation of Institutions of Democracy, St Petersburg: Publishing House of SPbSEU. (In Russian)
Kindleberger, C. (1975), The World in Depression 1929–1939, Berkeley: University of California Press.
Bazhan, A. (2019), Transferable Ruble and Transactions between the EUEA member-states, Sovremennaia Evropa, no. 6, pp. 117–126. (In Russian)
Marchildon, G. P. (1995), From Pax Britannica to Pax Americana and Beyond, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 538, no. 1, pp. 151–168.
Minkova, K. V. (2021), Economic Foundations of the Cold War: Soviet-American Relations in 1943– 1947, St Petersburg: SKIFIA-Print Publ. (In Russian)
Hirshman, A. O. (2012), Passions and Interests: Political Arguments in Favor of Capitalism and Its Triumph, Moscow: Izdatel’stvo Instituta Gaidara Publ. (In Russian)
Búrca, G. de. (2018), Is EU Supranational Governance a Challenge to Liberal Constitutionalism?, The University of Chicago Law Review, vol. 85, no. 2, pp. 337–368.
Castells, M. (2009), The Rise of the Network Society: The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, 2nd ed., London: Wiley-Blackwell.
Tkachenko, S. L. (2020), BRICS and Development Alternatives: Russia and China, in: Bianchini, S. and Fiori, A. (eds), Rekindling the Strong State in Russia and China: Domestic Dynamics and Foreign Policy Projections, Leiden, Boston: Brill, pp. 271–297.
De Robertis, A. G. and Tkachenko, S. (2021), The crisis of the “Liberal International Order” and the challenges from China and Russia, Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International Relations, vol. 13, iss. 4, pp. 465–477. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2020.403
Bordachev, T. (2022), Europe, Russia and the Liberal World Order: International Relations after the Cold War, London: Routledge.
Tkachenko, S., Zhiglinskaya Wyrsch, N. and Zheng, C. (2022), Technology platform competition between the United States and China: Decoupling and sanctions against Huawei, Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International Relations, vol. 14, iss. 4, pp. 378–392. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2021.401
.S Department of the Treasury (2022), Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Way Forward for the Global Economy, April 13. Available at: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0714 (accessed: 10.12.2022).
CHIPS and Science Act. H. R. 4346. PUBLIC LAW 117–167—AUG.9, 2022. 117th Congress. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117thcongress/house-bill/4346/text (accessed: 16.12.2022).
Varas, A., Varadarajan, R., Goodrich, J. and Yinug, F. (2021), BCG and SIA report “Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. Available at: https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/BCG-x-SIA-Strengthening-the-Global-Semiconductor-Value-Chain-April-2021_1.pdf (accessed: 22.01.2023).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Articles of "Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations" are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
