COVID-19 и политика санкций: опыт ивент-анализа
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2020.402Аннотация
В статье рассматривается влияние пандемии COVID-19 на использование санкций в качестве инструмента внешней политики. Поставлены следующие исследовательские вопросы: каким образом пандемия COVID-19 повлияла на политику стран — инициаторов санкций? Насколько серьезно были трансформированы режимы ограничительных мер? Какое место COVID-19 занимал в повестке политики санкций? В чем состояла позиция ООН как ключевого института глобального управления и какой была реакция ключевых стран — инициаторов санкций? Как менялась роль COVID-19 в политике санкций на протяжении пандемии? Основная гипотеза состоит в том, что COVID-19 принципиально не изменил существующие режимы санкций. Страны-инициаторы не отказались от своих программ. Они пошли на те или иные гуманитарные исключения. Однако такие изъятия носят ограниченный характер, а санкции продолжали применяться в привычном режиме. По ряду направлений COVID-19 даже обострил политические противоречия между некоторыми государствами, повысив риски применения санкций между ними. В числе таких государств — США и КНР. Проверка гипотезы осуществлена методом ивент-анализа. В статье анализируется массив данных о событиях в области политики санкций в мире в период пандемии COVID-19 c марта по июнь 2020 г. включительно. Изучаются характер событий, их распределение по странам-инициаторам и странам-целям, доля событий, связанных с COVID-19, а также содержание данных событий. Проведенный анализ подтвердил гипотезу об ограниченном влиянии пандемии на политику санкций. Кроме того, анализ показал слабость влияния ООН на позиции ключевых инициаторов санкций даже в случае экстремальных событий, подобных пандемии COVID-19.
Ключевые слова:
политика санкций, санкции, ограничительные меры, ООН, COVID-19, ивент-анализ
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Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
