Conceptualization of post-Soviet regime changes: Some intermediate results
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2020.306Abstract
The aim of the article is to analyze the attempts to conceptualize post-Soviet regime changes that have been undertaken over the past thirty years. For convenience, all concepts are grouped around three main approaches. The first one examines regime transformations in the former USSR from the point of view of a possible transition to democracy (transition paradigm); the second approach emphasizes the continuity between the post-Soviet political regimes and previous ones, overlooking fundamental differences between them; the third approach assumes that the post-Soviet transition did take place, however, it was “autocracyto-autocracy transition” (from one-party communist dictatorship to hybrid regimes or consolidated personalistic autocracies). The author considers regime change as transformation of some basic formal and informal rules of the game that determine the functioning of a given political system (from the way of making key decisions and allocating resources to the main channels for recruiting to the elite). As a result, the author proves that the third approach is the most relevant for understanding post-Soviet politics. Inter alia, its advantage is that it allows us to fit post-Soviet studies into the wider field of comparative political science: the analysis of post-Soviet politics, on the one hand, can significantly enrich our ideas about “how dictatorships work” at large, on the other hand, empirical knowledge about autocracies outside post-Soviet Eurasia and theories built on this basis will help us to understand the nature of authoritarianism in Russia’s “near abroad”.
Keywords:
former USSR, democracy, new authoritarianism, transitology, hybrid regimes, regime changes
Downloads
References
Литература
Müller, K. (1992), ‘Modernising’ Eastern Europe: Theoretical Problems and Political Dilemmas, European Journal of Sociology / Archives Européennes de Sociologie / Europäisches Archiv für Soziologie, no. 1 (33), pp. 109–150.
Хэнсон, С. (2011), Эволюция постсоветских режимов, Pro et Contra, № 5, c. 105–120. (In Russian)
Baehr, P.(2017), Movement, Formation, and Maintenance in the Soviet Union: Victor Zaslavsky’s Challenge to the Arendtian Theory of Totalitarianism, in Piffer, T. and Zubok, V.(eds), Totalitarian Societies and Democratic Transition: Essays in Memory of Victor Zaslavsky, Budapest, New York: CEU Press, pp. 19–52.
Geddes, B., Wright, J. and Frantz, E. (2014), Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set, Perspectives on Politics, no. 2 (12), pp. 313–331.
Rustow, D.A.(1990), Democracy: A Global Revolution? Foreign Affairs, no. 4 (69), pp. 75–91.
Fukuyama, F. (1989), The End of History?, The National Interest, no. 16, pp. 3–18.
O’Donnell, G. and Schmitter, Ph. (eds) (1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, Baltimore, London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Huntington, S. (1993), The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late 20th century, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.
Мельвиль, А.Ю. (1998), Опыт теоретико-методологического синтеза структурного и процедурного подходов к демократическим транзитам, Полис, № 2, с. 6–38.
Макаренко, Б.И. (2002), Консолидация демократии: «детские болезни» постсоветских государств, Полития, № 4 (27), с. 4–18.
Mandel, R. (2012), Transition to Where? Developing Post-Soviet Space, Slavic Review, no. 2 (71), pp. 223–233.
Карозерс, Т. (2003), Конец парадигмы транзита, Политическая наука, № 2, с. 42–65.
Капустин, Б.Г. (2001), Конец «транзитологии»? О теоретическом осмыслении первого посткоммунистического десятилетия, Полис, № 4, с. 6–26.
Ачкасов, В.А. (2015), Транзитология — научная теория или идеологический конструкт?, Полис, № 1, с. 30–37.
Макаренко, Б.И. (2008), Посткоммунистические страны: некоторые итоги трансформации, Полития, № 3 (50), с. 105–124.
Макаренко, Б.И.и Мельвиль, А.Ю. (2014), Как и почему «зависают» демократические транзиты? Посткоммунистические уроки, Политическая наука, № 3, с. 9–39.
Ambrosio, Th. (2008), Catching the ‘Shanghai Spirit’: How the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Promotes Authoritarian Norms in Central Asia, Europe Asia Studies, no. 8 (60), pp. 1321–1344.
Freedom in the World 2019 Map. URL: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedomworld-2019/map (дата обращения: 12.09.2019).
The Retreat of Global Democracy Stopped in 2018. URL: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/08/the-retreat-of-global-democracy-stopped-in-2018 (дата обращения: 12.09.2019).
Шумпетер, Й. (2008), Теория экономического развития. Капитализм, социализм и демократия, М.: Эксмо.
Berend, I. and Bugaric, B. (2015), Unfinished Europe: Transition from Communism to Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe, Journal of Contemporary History, no. 4 (50), pp. 768–785.
Magyar, B. (2016), Post-Communist Mafia State. The Case of Hungary, Budapest: CEU University Press & Noran Libro.
Diamond, L. (2015), Facing Up to the Democratic Recession, Journal of Democracy, no. 1 (26), pp. 141–142.
Kagan, R. (2008), The End of the End of History, The New Republic, April 23. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/2008/04/23/end-of-end-of-history-pub-20030 (дата обращения: 12.10.2019).
Mcfaul, M. (2002), The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship. Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World, World Politics, no. 54, pp. 212–244.
Kubicek, P. (2000), Post-communist Political Studies: Ten Years Later, Twenty Years Behind?, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, no. 33, pp. 295–309.
Aliyev, H. (2015), Post-Communist Civil Society and the Soviet Legacy. Challenges of Democratisation and Reform in the Caucasus, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Дерлугьян, Г. (2000), Крушение советской системы и его потенциальные следствия: банкротство, сегментация, вырождение, Полис, № 3, с. 18–30.
Гудков, Л.и Дубин, Б. (2007), Посттоталитарный синдром: «управляемая демократия» и апатия масс, Пути российского посткоммунизма: очерки, ред. Липман, М.и Рябов, А., М.: Изд-во Р.Элинина.
Hale, H. (2015), Patronal Politics. Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Мельников, К.В. (2018), Неопатримониализм: классификация как способ преодоления концептуальных натяжек, Полис, № 2, с. 68–81.
Фисун, А. (2007), Постсоветские неопатримониальные режимы: генезис, особенности, типология, Отечественные записки, № 6, с. 8–28.
Шкель, С.Н. (2016), Неопатримониальные практики и устойчивость авторитарных режимов в Евразии, Полития, № 4 (83), с. 94–107.
Lewis, D. (2015), “Illiberal Spaces:” Uzbekistan’s Extraterritorial Security Practices and the Spatial Politics of Contemporary Authoritarianism, Nationalities Papers, no. 1 (43), pp. 140–159.
Aliyev, H. (2015), Post-Soviet Informality: Towards Theory-Building, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, no. 3–4 (35), pp. 182–198.
Polese, A. et al. (eds) (2018), Post-Socialist Informalities. Power, Agency and the Construction of ExtraLegalities from Bosnia to China, New York: Routledge.
Aliyev, H. (2014), The Effects of the Saakashvili Era Reforms on Informal Practices in the Republic of Georgia, Studies of Transition States and Societies, no. 1 (6), pp. 19–33.
Бердяев, Н.А. (2016), Истоки и смысл русского коммунизма, СПб.: Азбука.
Geddes, B., Wright, J. and Frantz, E. (2018), How Dictatorships Work. Power, Personalization, and Collapse, Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Рогов, К.( 2019), Сценарии недемократического трансфера власти и институциональные траектории постсоветских стран, Царь горы: недемократический трансфер власти на постсоветском пространстве, ред. Рогов, К., М.: Либеральная миссия, c. 34–42.
Levitsky, S. and Way, L. (2002), The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, no. 2 (13), pp. 51–65.
Schedler, A.(ed.) (2006), Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Olcott, M.B. and Ottoway, M. (1999), Challenge of Semi-authoritarianism, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 1. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/1999/10/01/challenge-of-semiauthoritarianism-pub-142 (дата обращения: 09.01.2020).
Карл, Т.Л.и Шмиттер, Ф. (2004), Демократизация: концепты, постулаты, гипотезы, Полис, № 4, с. 6–27.
Diamond, L. (2002), Thinking about Hybrid Regimes, Journal of Democracy, no. 2 (13), pp. 21–35.
Brownlee, J. (2009), Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions, American Journal of Political Science, no. 3 (53), pp. 515–532.
Armony, A., Schamis, H. (2005), Babel in Democratization Studies, Journal of Democracy, no. 4 (16), pp. 113–128.
Линц, Х. (2018), Тоталитарные и авторитарные режимы, Неприкосновенный запас, № 4. URL: https:// magazines.gorky.media/nz/2018/4/totalitarnye-i-avtoritarnye-rezhimy.html (дата обращения: 12.10.2019).
Лапин, В.С. (2017), Соревновательный авторитарный режим: тактика оппозиционных акторов, Сравнительная политика, т. 8, № 3, с. 120–130.
Way, L. (2015), Pluralism by default. Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
Way, L. (2005), Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, World Politics, no. 2 (57), pp. 231–261.
Гельман, В.Я. (2012), Расцвет и упадок электорального авторитаризма в России, Полития, № 4, с. 65–88.
Kaya, R. and Bernhard, M.(2013), Are Elections Mechanisms of Authoritarian Stability or Democratization? Evidence from Postcommunist Eurasia, Perspectives on Politics, no. 3 (11), pp. 734–752.
Zimmerman, W. (2014), Ruling Russia. Authoritarianism from the Revolution to Putin, Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Hale, H. (2019), Freeing Post-Soviet Regimes from the Procrustean Bed of Democracy Theory, in Magyar, B.(ed.), Stubborn Structures. Reconceptualizing Post-Comminist Regimes, Budapest, New York: CEU Press, pp. 5–20.
References
Müller, K.(1992), ‘Modernising’ Eastern Europe: Theoretical Problems and Political Dilemmas, European Journal of Sociology / Archives Européennes de Sociologie / Europäisches Archiv für Soziologie, no. 1 (33), pp. 109–150.
Hjenson, S.(2011), The evolution of post-Soviet Regimes, Pro et Contra, no. 5, pp. 105–120. (In Russian)
Baehr, P.(2017), Movement, Formation, and Maintenance in the Soviet Union: Victor Zaslavsky’s Challenge to the Arendtian Theory of Totalitarianism, in Piffer, T. and Zubok, V.(eds), Totalitarian Societies and Democratic Transition: Essays in Memory of Victor Zaslavsky, Budapest, New York: CEU Press, pp. 19–52.
Geddes, B., Wright, J. and Frantz, E.(2014), Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set, Perspectives on Politics, no. 2 (12), pp. 313–331.
Rustow, D.A.(1990), Democracy: A Global Revolution?, Foreign Affairs, no. 4 (69), pp. 75–91.
Fukuyama, F.(1989), The End of History?, The National Interest, no. 16, pp. 3–18.
O’Donnell, G. and Schmitter, Ph. (eds) (1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, Baltimore, London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Huntington, S.(1993), The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late 20th century, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.
Mel’vil’, A.Ju. (1998), The experience of theoretical and methodological synthesis of structural and procedural approaches to democratic transitions, Polis, no. 2, pp. 6–38. (In Russian)
Makarenko, B.I.(2002), Consolidation of Democracy: “Childhood Diseases” of Post-Soviet States, Politiia, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 4–18. (In Russian)
Mandel, R.(2012), Transition to Where? Developing Post-Soviet Space, Slavic Review, no. 2 (71), pp. 223–233.
Karozers, T.(2003), The End of The Transition Paradigm, Politicheskaia nauka, no. 2, pp. 42–65. (In Russian)
Kapustin, B.G.(2001), The end of “transitology”? On the theoretical interpretation of the first postcommunist decade, Polis, no. 4, pp. 6–26. (In Russian)
Achkasov, V.A.(2015), Transitology — Scientific Theory or Ideological Construct? Polis, no. 1, pp. 30–37. (In Russian)
Makarenko, B.I.(2008), Postcommunist states: some results of transformation, Politiia, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 105–124. (In Russian)
Makarenko, B.I. and Mel’vil’, A.Ju. (2014), How and why are democratic transit freezes up? Postcommunist lessons, Politicheskaia nauka, no. 3, pp. 9–39. (In Russian)
Ambrosio, Th. (2008), Catching the ‘Shanghai Spirit’: How the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Promotes Authoritarian Norms in Central Asia, Europe Asia Studies, no. 8 (60), pp. 1321–1344.
Freedom in the World 2019 Map. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/ freedom-world-2019/map (accessed: 12.09.2019).
The Retreat of Global Democracy Stopped in 2018. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphicdetail/2019/01/08/the-retreat-of-global-democracy-stopped-in-2018 (accessed: 12.09.2019).
Shumpeter, J.(2008), The Theory of Economic Development. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Moscow: Eksmo Publ. (In Russian)
Berend, I. and Bugaric, B.(2015), Unfinished Europe: Transition from Communism to Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe, Journal of Contemporary History, no. 4 (50), pp. 768–785.
Magyar, B.(2016), Post-Communist Mafia State. The Case of Hungary, Budapest: CEU University Press & Noran Libro.
Diamond, L.(2015), Facing Up to the Democratic Recession, Journal of Democracy, no. 1 (26), pp. 141–142.
Kagan, R.(2008), The End of the End of History, The New Republic, April 23. Available at: https:// carnegieendowment.org/2008/04/23/end-of-end-of-history-pub-20030 (accessed: 12.10.2019).
Mcfaul, M.(2002), The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship. Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World, World Politics, no. 54, pp. 212–244.
Kubicek, P.(2000), Post-communist Political Studies: Ten Years Later, Twenty Years Behind?, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, no. 33, pp. 295–309.
Aliyev, H.(2015), Post-Communist Civil Society and the Soviet Legacy. Challenges of Democratisation and Reform in the Caucasus, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Derlug’jan, G.(2000), The collapse of the Soviet system and its potential consequences: bankruptcy, segmentation, degeneration, Polis, no. 3, pp. 18–30. (In Russian)
Gudkov, L. and Dubin, B.(2007), Post-totalitarian syndrome: “managed democracy” and mass apathy, in Lipman, M. and Ryabov, A.(eds), Pathways of Russian Communism: Essays, Moscow: Izdatelstvo Elinina Publ. (In Russian)
Hale, H.(2015), Patronal Politics. Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Mel’nikov, K.V.(2018), Neopatrimonialism: classification as a way to overcome conceptual stretching, Polis, no. 2, pp. 68–81. (In Russian)
Fisun, A.(2007), Post-Soviet neopatrimonial regimes: genesis, features, typology, Otechestvennye zapiski, no. 6, pp. 8–28. (In Russian)
Shkel’, S.N.(2016), Neopatrimonial practices in and resilience of authoritarian regimes in Eurasia, Politiia, vol. 83, no. 4, pp. 94–107. (In Russian)
Lewis, D.(2015), “Illiberal Spaces:” Uzbekistan’s Extraterritorial Security Practices and the Spatial Politics of Contemporary Authoritarianism, Nationalities Papers, no. 1 (43), pp. 140–159.
Aliyev, H.(2015), Post-Soviet Informality: Towards Theory-Building, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, no. 3–4 (35), pp. 182–198.
Polese, A. et al. (eds) (2018), Post-Socialist Informalities. Power, Agency and the Construction of ExtraLegalities from Bosnia to China, New York: Routledge.
Aliyev, H.(2014), The Effects of the Saakashvili Era Reforms on Informal Practices in the Republic of Georgia, Studies of Transition States and Societies, no. 1 (6), pp. 19–33.
Berdjaev, N.A.(2016), The Origin and Meaning of Russian Communism, St. Petersburg: Azbuka Publ. (In Russian)
Geddes, B., Wright, J. and Frantz, E.(2018), How Dictatorships Work. Power, Personalization, and Collapse, Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rogov, K.(2019), Scenarios of undemocratic transfer of power and institutional trajectories of postSoviet countries, in Rogov, K.(ed.), Tsar of the hill: undemocratic transfer of power in the post-Soviet space, Moscow: Liberal’naia missiia Publ. (In Russian)
Levitsky, S. and Way, L.(2002), The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy, no. 2 (13), pp. 51–65.
Schedler, A.(ed.) (2006), Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition, Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Olcott, M.B. and Ottoway, M.(1999), Challenge of Semi-authoritarianism, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 01. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/1999/10/01/challenge-ofsemi-authoritarianism-pub-142 (accessed: 09.01.2020).
Karl, T.L. and Shmitter, F.(2004), Democratization: concepts, postulates, hypotheses, Polis, no. 4, pp. 6–27. (In Russian)
Diamond, L.(2002), Thinking about Hybrid Regimes, Journal of Democracy, no. 2 (13), pp. 21–35.
Brownlee, J.(2009), Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions, American Journal of Political Science, no. 3 (53), pp. 515–532.
Armony, A. and Schamis, H.(2005), Babel in Democratization Studies, Journal of Democracy, no. 4 (16), pp. 113–128.
Linc, H.(2018), Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes, Neprikosnovennyi zapas, no. 4. Available at: https://magazines.gorky.media/nz/2018/4/totalitarnye-i-avtoritarnye-rezhimy.html (accessed: 12.10.2019). (In Russian)
Lapin, V. S.(2017), Competitive authoritarian regime: tactics of opposition actors, Sravnitel’naia politika, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 120–130. (In Russian)
Way, L.(2015), Pluralism by default. Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
Way, L.(2005), Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, World Politics, no. 2 (57), pp. 231–261.
Gel’man, V.Ja. (2012), The Rise and Fall of Electoral Authoritarianism in Russia, Politiia, no. 4, pp. 65–88. (In Russian)
Kaya, R. and Bernhard, M.(2013), Are Elections Mechanisms of Authoritarian Stability or Democratization? Evidence from Postcommunist Eurasia, Perspectives on Politics, no. 3 (11), pp. 734–752.
Zimmerman, W.(2014), Ruling Russia. Authoritarianism from the Revolution to Putin, Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Hale, H.(2019), Freeing Post-Soviet Regimes from the Procrustean Bed of Democracy Theory, in Magyar, B.(ed.), Stubborn Structures. Reconceptualizing Post-Comminist Regimes, Budapest, New York: CEU Press, pp. 5–20.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Articles of "Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations" are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.