Evolution of the ‘Russian factor’ in Japanese foreign policy in Central Asia

Abstract

The article offers a nuanced analysis of several milestones in the evolution of Japan’s foreign policy in post-Soviet Central Asia, focusing in particular on Russia’s role and place in Tokyo’s diplomatic strategy in the region. It aims to fill gaps in understanding what the driving forces behind this foreign policy are and to reflect such nuances as the changes in Japan’s diplomatic priorities in relation to Central Asia in Tokyo’s foreign policy community. The work introduces a number of primary and secondary sources into the Russian-language academic literature on the matter that were previously unused or used insufficiently, in the English and Japanese languages. The article challenges the idea of reducing Japan’s foreign policy in Central Asia to only passing the U.S. foreign policy interest and interpreting it as balancing Russia’s influence on Central Asia within the ‘zero-sum-game’. According to the author, such balancing corresponds to individual, if notable, episodes in Tokyo’s foreign policy in the region, which are more accurately described in terms of neoclassical realism as overbalancing. A restrictive interpretation of Tokyo’s Silk Road Diplomacy as balancing the influence of Russia and/ or China would also be static since it would not reflect the changes that this diplomacy went through over the two decades of its existence - for example, a gradual change in the position of Tokyo toward increased cooperation and decreased competition, as well as the reasons for these changes. The article is dedicated to the analysis of various milestones in the development of Tokyo’s foreign policy in Central Asia while considering the ‘Russian factor’.

Keywords:

Japan-Russia relations, Central Asia, balance of powers, neoclassical realism, overbalancing, the New Silk Road