The problem of US international obligations after withdrawal from Afghanistan: Is America ready to defend Taiwan?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2021.402Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of the evolution of US foreign policy towards the Taiwan problem during the administration of Donald Trump and the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidency. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is analysed in the article in the context of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. Despite the very specific selection of the administration’s personnel and the general impulsiveness of President Trump’s political decisions, his vision of the Taiwan problem coincided with a long-ripening desire in the ranks of the American political elite to get rid of self-restraint in relations with Taiwan in order to avoid open conflict with China. A result of the deterioration of US-China relations and Trump’s related pro-Taiwan initiatives was high tension in the Taiwan Strait zone, and a decrease of international support for Taiwan. At the same time, the complete destruction of the traditional American “policy of strategic ambiguity” still did not occur. Biden’s first steps have shown that while maintaining the appearance of a tough “Trump” approach to the problem, he is intent on stabilizing the situation around Taiwan. The new president seeks to maintain the level of ties with Taiwan achieved under Trump, while avoiding rash and provocative decisions. Overall, it can be argued that Taiwan is increasingly moving into the focus of American foreign policy. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will not only not lead to a decrease in the level of American guarantees in the Taiwan Strait, but, on the contrary, it will make it possible to attract new resources here.
Keywords:
Taiwan, Taiwan problem, US-China relations, US allies
Downloads
References
Green, M. J. (2017), By more than providence: grand strategy and American power in the Asia Pacific since 1783, New York: Columbia University Press.
Hu Xijin in Twitter. August 16, 2021. URL: https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1427286890835705860?s=20 (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Jia, Q. (2021), Taiwan: Can a perfect storm be averted? China International Strategy Review, no. 3, pp. 66–82.
Закон о предотвращении раскола страны. URL: http://kz.china-embassy.org/rus/ztbd/lianghui/sanjierendashicihuiyi/t190090.htm (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Гордеева, И. В. (2021), Место Тайваня в противоборстве США и Японии с Китаем, Проблемы Дальнего Востока, № 1, с. 7–20.
Feng, J. (2021), Maintaining Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Strategic Ambiguity versus Strategic Clarity, Southern California International Review, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 44–54.
Лексютина, Я. В. (2017), США и политика «одного Китая», Контуры глобальных трансформа- ций: политика, экономика, право, т. 10, № 5, с. 99–116.
Horton, Ch. (2017), Taiwan’s President Meets with Ted Cruz in the U. S., and China Objects, The New York Times, January 9. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/09/world/asia/taiwan-ted-cruz-china.html (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
H. R. 535 — Taiwan Travel Act, 2018, Congress.gov., March 16. URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535/text (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
S. 2736 — Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Congress.gov., December 31, 2018. URL: https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ409/PLAW-115publ409.pdf (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Trump Arms Sales to Taiwan Boost Anti-China ‘Hedgehog’ Strategy, Bloomberg, October 28, 2020. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/trump-arms-sales-to-taiwan-boost-anti-china- hedgehog-strategy (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Seligman, L. (2021), U. S. warns of China’s growing threat to Taiwan, POLITICO, March 15. URL: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/15/china-growing-threat-taiwan-476170 (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Lee, R. (2021), Taiwan’s China dependency is a double-edged sword, East Asia Forum, July 6. URL: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/07/06/taiwans-china-dependency-is-a-double-edged-sword/ (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
S. 1678 — Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019. 03/26/2020 Became Public Law No: 116–135, Congress.gov. URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1678/text (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
The majority of Taiwanese want Trump returned as president, Asia News, October 28, 2020. URL: http://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-majority-of-Taiwanese-want-Trump-returned-as-president-51429. html (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Pro-Trump crowd holds rally in Taipei, Taipei Times, December 20, 2020. URL: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/12/20/2003749059 (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Ishihara, T. (2021), US-Taiwan Relations during the Tsai Ing-wen Administration and Prospects After the COVID-19 Pandemic, Asia-Pacific Review, vol. 28, no. 1. URL: https://proxy.library.spbu.ru:2060/10.1080/13439006.2021.1921948 (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Taiwan-Biden ties off to strong start with invite for top diplomat, Reuters, January 21, 2021. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-taiwan-idUSKBN29Q01N (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Albert, E. (2021), US Ambassador Makes First Visit to Taiwan in More Than 40 Years, The Diplomat, April 01. URL: https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/us-ambassador-makes-first-visit-to-taiwan-in-morethan- 40-years/ (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
US to ease restrictions on meeting Taiwanese officials, Financial Times, April 10, 2021. URL: https://www.ft.com/content/beb5280d-6f1e-450c-a948–820e1f06e10b (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Taiwan not part of China, Pompeo says, Taipei Times, November 14, 2020. URL: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/11/14/2003746883 (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
PRC Military Pressure Against Taiwan Threatens Regional Peace and Stability, US Department of State, Press Statement, September 23, 2021. URL: https://www.state.gov/prc-military-pressure-against-taiwan- threatens-regional-peace-and-stability (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Захаров, В. (2021), Тайвань — яблоко стратегического раздора между КНР и США, Международная жизнь, № 3, с. 36–45.
U. S. carrier group enters South China Sea amid Taiwan tensions, Reuters, January 24, 2021. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKBN29T05J (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Grothusen, H. (2021), How Biden is Building on Trump’s Legacy in Taiwan, Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 20. URL: https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/how-bidenbuilding- trumps-legacy-taiwan (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
Divided We Stand, 2020, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. URL: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/report_2020ccs_americadivided_0.pdf (дата обращения: 05.09.2021).
References
Green, M. J. (2017), By more than providence: grand strategy and American power in the Asia Pacific since 1783, New York: Columbia University Press.
Hu Xijin in Twitter. August 16, 2021. Available at: https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1427286890835705860?s=20 (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Jia, Q. (2021), Taiwan: Can a perfect storm be averted? China International Strategy Review, no. 3, pp. 66–82.
The Law on Preventing the Splitting of the Country. Available at: http://kz.china-embassy.org/rus/ztbd/lianghui/sanjierendashicihuiyi/t190090.htm (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Gordeeva, I. V. (2021), Taiwan’s place in the confrontation between the United States and Japan with China, Problemy Dal’nego Vostoka, no. 1, pp. 7–20. (In Russian)
Feng, J. (2021), Maintaining Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Strategic Ambiguity versus Strategic Clarity, Southern California International Review, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 44–54.
Leksyutina, Y. (2017), The United States and the One China Policy, Kontury global’nykh transformacii: politika, ekonomika, parvo, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 99–116. (In Russian)
Horton, Ch. (2017), Taiwan’s President Meets with Ted Cruz in the U. S., and China Objects, The New York Times, January 9. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/09/world/asia/taiwan-ted-cruzchina. html (accessed: 05.09.2021).
H. R. 535 — Taiwan Travel Act, Congress.gov. March 16, 2018. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535/text (accessed: 05.09.2021).
S. 2736 — Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Congress. gov. December 31, 2018. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/115/plaws/publ409/PLAW-115publ409.pdf (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Trump Arms Sales to Taiwan Boost Anti-China ‘Hedgehog’ Strategy, Bloomberg. October 28, 2020. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/trump-arms-sales-to-taiwan-boostanti-china-hedgehog-strategy (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Seligman, L. (2021), U. S. warns of China’s growing threat to Taiwan, POLITICO, March 15. Available at: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/15/china-growing-threat-taiwan-476170 (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Lee, R. (2021), Taiwan’s China dependency is a double-edged sword, East Asia Forum, July 6. Available at: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/07/06/taiwans-china-dependency-is-a-double-edged-sword/ (accessed: 05.09.2021).
S. 1678 — Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019. 03/26/2020 Became Public Law No: 116–135, Congress.gov. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1678/text (accessed: 05.09.2021).
The majority of Taiwanese want Trump returned as president, Asia News, October 28, 2020. Available at: http://www.asianews.it/news-en/The-majority-of-Taiwanese-want-Trump-returned-as-president-51429.html (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Pro-Trump crowd holds rally in Taipei, Taipei Times, December 20, 2020. Available at: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/12/20/2003749059 (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Ishihara, T. (2021), US-Taiwan Relations during the Tsai Ing-wen Administration and Prospects After the COVID-19 Pandemic, Asia-Pacific Review, vol. 28, no. 1. Available at: https://proxy.library.spbu.ru:2060/10.1080/13439006.2021.1921948 (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Taiwan-Biden ties off to strong start with invite for top diplomat, Reuters, January 21, 2021. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-taiwan-idUSKBN29Q01N (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Albert, E. (2021), US Ambassador Makes First Visit to Taiwan in More Than 40 Years, The Diplomat, April 01. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/us-ambassador-makes-first-visit-to-taiwan-inmore-than-40-years/ (accessed: 05.09.2021).
US to ease restrictions on meeting Taiwanese officials, Financial Times, April 10, 2021. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/beb5280d-6f1e-450c-a948-820e1f06e10b (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Taiwan not part of China, Pompeo says, Taipei Times, November 14, 2020. Available at: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/11/14/2003746883 (accessed: 05.09.2021).
PRC Military Pressure Against Taiwan Threatens Regional Peace and Stability, US Department of State, Press Statement, September 23, 2021. Available at: https://www.state.gov/prc-military-pressureagainst-taiwan-threatens-regional-peace-and-stability (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Zaharov, V. (2021): Taiwan — an apple of strategic discord between the PRC and the United States, Mezhdunarodnaia zhizn’, no. 3, pp. 36–45. (In Russian)
U. S. carrier group enters South China Sea amid Taiwan tensions, Reuters, January 24, 2021. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-idUSKBN29T05J (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Grothusen, H. (2021), How Biden is Building on Trump’s Legacy in Taiwan, Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 20. Available at: https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/howbiden-building-trumps-legacy-taiwan (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Divided We Stand, 2020, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Available at: https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/report_2020ccs_americadivided_0.pdf (accessed: 05.09.2021).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Articles of "Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations" are open access distributed under the terms of the License Agreement with Saint Petersburg State University, which permits to the authors unrestricted distribution and self-archiving free of charge.
