The member states’ contributions to NATO’s policy in Afghanistan during Donald Trump presidency
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.103Аннотация
In a currently highly competitive international environment, US goals of consolidating and strengthening NATO as well as bringing its present mission in Afghanistan to successful termination gain in significance. The success of these processes enhances the reputation of the United States as a powerful international actor. I checked the hypothesis that facing sharp critique from the United States president for free riding in NATO, those members who fail to meet the target of 2 per cent of GDP in their defense expenditure would choose to increase significantly their contributions to the Alliance’s efforts in Afghanistan. I did not find enough convincing empirical data to prove it. The contributions of allies rather reflect their power potentials and ambitions they pursue by cooperating in NATO framework. US allies remain able to define the scale of their contribution to collective efforts in NATO framework despite the US pressure. Broadening of the Alliance’s purview after the end of the Cold war provided member states with additional alternatives for choosing types of their involvement. My findings generally support the established view on intra-alliance bargaining process in scholarly literature. A wide range of missions in NATO framework and beyond it facilitates coalition formation for the United States with their numerous allies and partners. At the same time, if more major allies further choose to cooperate with Washington outside NATO, it will undermine its effectiveness and global role.
Ключевые слова:
NATO, United States, Afghanistan, alliance, politics of prestige, new Europe, old Europe
Скачивания
Библиографические ссылки
Defense Expenditures of NATO Countries (2011–2018). Press Release. July 10, 2018. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_07/20180709_180710-pr2018-91-en.pdf (accessed: 02.08.2018).
Emmott R., Ali I. US Tells NATO Allies Spending Plans Still Falling Short. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-nato/u-s-tells-nato-allies-spending-plans-still-falling-shortidUSKCN1FY013 (accessed: 01.09.2018).
ISAF’s Mission in Afghanistan (2001–2014) (Archived). Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/us/natohq/topics_69366.htm (accessed: 02.08.2018).
Vlasov N.A. Uroki Gindukusha: Missiya Bundesvera v Afganistane I politika bezopasnosti FRG [Lessons of Hindu Kush: the Mission of the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan and its Impact on German Security Policy]. Vestnik SPbGU. Ser. 6. Political Science. International Relations, 2016, is. 3, pp. 108–121. (In Russian)
Deni J.R. Alliance Management and Maintenance: Restructuring NATO for the 21st Century. London, Routledge, 2007. 286 p.
Snyder G.H. The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics, 1984, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 461–495.
Weitsman P.A. Dangerous Alliances: Proponents of Peace, Weapons of War. Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2004. 244 p.
Olson M., Zeckhauser R. An Economic Theory of Alliances. Memorandum RM-4297-ISA. October 1966. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_memoranda/2007/RM4297.pdf (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Sandler S., Hartley K. Economics of Alliances: The Lessons for Collective Action. Journal of Economic Literature, 2001, vol. 39, is. 3, pp. 869–896.
Thies W.J. Friendly Rivals: Bargaining and Burden Shifting in NATO. London, Taylor & Francis, 2015. 368 p.
Kupchan Ch. NATO and the Persian Gulf: Examining Intra-Alliance Behavior. International Organization, 1988, vol. 42, is. 2, pp. 317–346.
Von Hlatky S. American Allies in Times of War: The Great Asymmetry. New York, Oxford University Press, 2013. 181 p.
Kreps S. Elite Consensus as a Determinant of Alliance Cohesion: Why Public Opinion Hardly Matters for NATO-Led Operations in Afghanistan. Foreign Policy Analysis, 2010, vol. 6, is. 3, pp. 191–215.
Saideman S.M., Auerswald D.P. Comparing Caveats: Understanding the Sources of National Restrictions upon NATO’s Mission in Afghanistan. International Studies Quarterly, 2012, no. 56, pp. 67–84.
Fermann G. Coping with Caveats in Coalition Warfare: An Empirical Research Program. London, Taylor & Francis, 2019. 281 p.
Risse-Kappen T. Cooperation among Democracies: The European Influence on U. S. Foreign Policy. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1997. 250 p.
Morgenthau H.J., Thompson K.W. Politics among Nations: the Struggle for Power and Peace. 6th edition. New York, Alfred E.Knopf, 1985. 380 p.
Wales Summit Declaration. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of North Atlantic Council in Wales. 05 Sep. 2014. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm (accessed: 03.09.2018).
Whiton Ch. NATO Is Obsolete. National Interest. July 6, 2018. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/nato-obsolete-25167 (accessed: 02.09.2018).
The Growing Irrelevance of NATO. Available at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/growingirrelevance-nato (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Williams M.J. Enduring, but irrelevant? Britain, NATO and the future of the Atlantic alliance. International Politics, 2013, vol. 50, is. 3, pp. 360–386.
Rupp R. Israel in NATO? The National Interest. November, 10, 2006. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/article/israel-in-nato-1297 (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Khramchikhin A.A. Budet li Rossiia okkupirovat’ Evropu? Rukovodstvo NATO okazalos’ v plenu sobstvennykh strategicheskikh illuzii [Will Russia occupy Europe? NATO Leadership Was Taken Prisoner of their Own Strategic Illusions]. Available at: http://nvo.ng.ru/realty/2018-09-13/1_1013_occupation.html (accessed: 02.09.2018). (In Russian)
NATO and Afghanistan. Available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_8189.htm (accessed: 08.09.2018).
Afghanistan National Army (ANA) Trust Fund. July 2016. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_07/20160701_1607-factsheet-ana-tf.pdf (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Konarovsky M. Afghanistan after 2014. International Organizations Research Journal, 2017, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 242–253.
Roggio B., Gutowski A. LWJ Map Assessment: Taliban Controls or Contests 45% of Afghan Districts. Available at: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/09/lwj-map-assessment-talibancontrols-or-contests-45-of-afghan-districts.php (accessed: 10.09.2018).
Afghanistan. Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict. Annual Report 2017. Available at: https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/afghanistan_protection_of_civilians_annual_report_2017_final_6_march.pdf (accessed: 02.09.2018).
The Situation in Afghanistan and its Implications for International Peace and Security. Report of the Secretary-General. 10 September 2018. Available at: https://unama.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/sg_report_on_afghanistan_12_sept.pdf (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Fair C.Ch. Afghanistan in 2017. Another Year of Running in Place. Asian Survey, 2018, vol. 58, no. 1, pp. 110–119.
Batyuk V. Novaia strategiia SShA v Afganistane [New US Strategy in Afghanistan]. Available at: http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/novaya-strategiya-ssha-v-afganistane/(accessed: 15.09.2018). (In Russian)
Tsvetkova N.A. Publichnaia diplomatiia SSHA: ot ‘miagkoi sily’ k ‘dialogovoi propagande’ [New Forms and Elements of US Public Diplomacy: From Soft Power to Dialogue-Based Propaganda]. Mezhdunarodnye protsessy, 2015, vol. 13, no. 3 (42), pp. 121–133. (In Russian)
Trump D.J. Remarks of President Trump on the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia. August 21, 2017. Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-strategyafghanistan-south-asia/ (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Taurangbam M., Palrecha N. Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan: The Beginning of an Indefinite End. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/trumps-strategy-in-afghanistan-the-beginning-of-anindefinite-end/ (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Seligman L. One Year On, Little to Show for Trump’s Afghanistan Strategy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/23/one-year-on-little-to-show-for-trumps-afghanistan-strategy/ (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Walsh N.P. Trump’s Strategy Is Failing and the Taliban Is Winning. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/16/asia/afghan-analysis-npw-intl/index.html (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Roggio B. Taliban Operations Span the Entire Country, Afghan Interior Ministry Confirms.Available at: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/06/taliban-operations-span-the-entirecountry-afghan-interior-ministry-confirms.php (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Trump Got from NATO Everything Obama Ever Asked For. July 12, 2018. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/12/opinion/editorials/trump-nato-obama.html (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Resolute Support Mission (RSM): Key Facts and Figures. December 2019. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_12/20181203_2018-12-RSM-Placemat.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Resolute Support Mission (RSM): Key Facts and Figures. February 2017. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2017_02/20170209_2017-02-RSM-Placemat.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Afghanistan National Army (ANA) Trust Fund. December 2016. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_12/20161206_1612-backgrounder-ana-en.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Afghanistan National Army (ANA) Trust Fund. December 2016. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_12/20181203_1812-backgrounder-ana-trust-fund-en.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2011–2018). 10 July 2018. P. 8. Available at: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_07/20180709_180710-pr2018-91-en.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Poland among NATO States to Pledge More Troops to Afghanistan. Available at: http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/334416,Poland-among-NATO-states-to-pledge-more-troops-to-Afghanistan (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Afghanistan: UK to Send 440 more Non-Combat Troops. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44787636 (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Johnson B. Beyond Brexit: A Global Britain. Foreign Secretary delivers first major policy speech at Chatham House. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/beyond-brexit-a-global-britain (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Britain to Almost Double Troops in Afghanistan after U. S. Request. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-britain-afghanistan/britain-to-almost-double-troops-in-afghanistanafter-u-s-request-idUSKBN1K02WM (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Beale J. Why Are UK and US Sending More Troops to Afghanistan? Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44967531 (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Jenkins S. More British Troops Are Being Sent to Afghanistan — to Appease Trump. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/13/british-troops-afghanistan-appease-trumpwar (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Kunz B. The Real Roots of Germany’s Defense Spending Problem. Available at: https://warontherocks.com/2018/07/the-real-roots-of-germanys-defense-spending-problem/ (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Federal Government Report to the Status of and Outlook for Germany’s Afghanistan Engagement. Report to the German Bundestag. February 2018. Available at: https://www.auswaertigesamt.de/blob/1789270/e84f878742c319e5d93337c0b8b13c37/180315-perspektivbericht-data.pdf (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Koch M., Riedel D. Germany’s ‘Forever War’ in Afghanistan. Available at: https://www.handelsblatt.com/today/politics/more-troops-germanys-forever-war-in-afghanistan/23581604.html?ticket=ST602466-bCAkXZg5xfUsbD3sXMmV-ap3 (accessed: 24.01.2019).
German Defense Minister Tells Troops in Afghanistan to Prepare for Long Haul. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-minister-tells-troops-in-afghanistan-to-prepare-for-longhaul/a-43123851 (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Braw E. The Future of Italy’s International Military Footprint. Available at: https://rusi.org/commentary/future-italys-international-military-footprint (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Italy Not Against Upping NATO Contribution, but ‘Assess First’. Available at: http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2017/05/25/italy-not-agst-upping-nato-contribution-but-assess-first_4d559c14-e0d5-4578-a3e1-2c4f49431aa1.html (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Italy should pull out of Afghanistan — M5S’s Di Maio. Available at: http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2018/02/06/italy-should-pull-out-of-afghanistan-m5ss-di-maio-2_7f38d55c-ea2f-4594-9223-cb48785cbf91.html (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Gonzalez M. España acepta la petición de tropas para Afganistán [Spain accepts the request of troops for Afghanistan]. El Pais, July 16, 2017. Available at: https://elpais.com/politica/2017/07/16/actualidad/1500220527_556489.html (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Greek Air Force Bolsters NATO Mission in Afghanistan. Available at: http://www.ekathimerini.com/230145/article/ekathimerini/news/greek-air-force-bolsters-nato-mission-in-afghanistan (accessed: 15.09.2018).
Mir bez Rossii? Evgenii Primakov: k chemu vedet politicheskaia blizorukost’ [World without Russia: What Is the Result of Political Myopia?]. Available at: https://rg.ru/2009/01/21/primakov-kniga.html (accessed: 15.09.2018). (In Russian)
Marton P., Eichler J. Between Willing and Reluctant Entrapment: CEE Countries in NATO’s nonEuropean Missions. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 2013, 46, pp. 351–362.
Afghani Helicopter Pilots Train in Košice. Available at: https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20773928/afghani-helicopter-pilots-will-train-in-kosice.html (accessed: 17.09.2018).
“No plans to double our defense budget” Trudeau says. Available at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-latvia-visit-nato-1.4740098 (accessed: 17.09.2018).
France and NATO. France’s Role in North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Available at: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/defence-security/france-and-nato/ (accessed: 17.09.2018).
France and Afghanistan. Available at: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/afghanistan/france-and-afghanistan/ (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Hatto R.French Strategic Narratives, Public Opinion and the War in Afghanistan. Strategic Narratives, Public Opinion and War. Winning Domestic Support for the Afghan War. Eds B. de Graaf, G.Dimitriu, J.Ringsmose. New York, Routledge, 2015. 380 p.
Afghanistan: le subit accès de réalisme de Trump [Afghanistan: Unexpected Approach of Trump’s Realism]. Le Monde, August 22, 2017. Available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/08/22/afghanistan-trump-cede-aux-generaux_5175107_3232.html (accessed: 24.01.2019).
NATO increasing troops in Afghanistan again, but Trudeau says Canadians won’t be among them. Available at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nato-troop-increase-afghanistan-1.4183549 (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Mr. Trump should negotiate a power-sharing agreement in Afghanistan. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mr-trump-should-negotiate-a-power-sharing-agreement-in-afghanistan/2017/05/01/dd482b94-2c41-11e7-9081-f5405f56d3e4_story.html?utm_term=.3d8f9ff46ccc (accessed: 24.01.2019).
Загрузки
Опубликован
Как цитировать
Выпуск
Раздел
Лицензия
Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
