The many facets of the Russian probe

Авторы

  • Grigory Yarygin Saint Petersburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.404

Аннотация

This article presents an analysis of the Russian probe of 2016–2019. The author defines the Russian probe as a complex of investigations originated at different chronological stages by various institutions and communities with regard to Russian meddling in US domestic processes. Distinctive facets of the Russian probe and the varied nature of claims and allegations are reviewed. The author, constituting a two dimensional binary matrix, offers a classification of Russian inquiries based on the chronological characteristics and essence of the case as well as chronology of initiation and institution in charge. The author puts forward and supports a hypothesis stating that the Russian probe is an independent variable of the US political agenda and should not be considered as a byproduct of internal political struggle. The mere personality of the new president, political elite’s rejection of Donald Trump, his Russian contacts, and potential predisposition to Russia does not necessarily stipulate initiation of the Russian probe. The author raises and responds to a set of research questions which include but are not limited to: a) does the Russian probe have an electoral dimension only? b) does it have a pure anti-Trump nature? c) was the Russian probe launched following the US presidential election and ignited by the elections? d) does it have a homogenous institutional architecture? Which means of investigations were initiated and conducted by the same institution or did they have a multi-institutional origin? e) if outcomes of varied investigations do not concur, do they have anything in common? And finally, f) will the Russian probe eliminate all risks and threats of the nature under consideration to the USA? The author comes to a conclusion about the inevitability of the Russian probe no matter which candidate would have won the presidency in 2016 and confirms the inability of investigation results to cope with risks of compromising domestic processes.

Ключевые слова:

Russia, USA, Russian investigations, meddling, elections, energy, environment

Скачивания

Данные скачивания пока недоступны.
 

Библиографические ссылки

References

ODNI Statement on Declassified Intelligence Community Assessment of Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections. January 6, 2017. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, available at: https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/assessing-russian-activities-and-intentions-recent-us-elections (accessed: 02.03.2017).

Joint DHS, ODNI, FBI Statement on Russian Malicious Cyber Activity. December 29, 2016. Department of Homeland Security, available at: https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/12/29/joint-dhs-odni-fbi-statement-russian-malicious-cyber-activity (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Joint Analysis Report: GRIZZLY STEPPE — Russian Malicious Cyber Activity. December 29, 2016. National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center (NCCIC), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), available at: https://www.us-cert.gov/sites/default/files/publications/JAR_16-20296A_GRIZZLY%20STEPPE-2016-1229.pdf (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Technical Alert: Russian State-Sponsored Cyber Actors Targeting Network Infrastructure Devices. April 16, 2018. National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center (NCCIC), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), available at: https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA18-106A (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Technical Alert: Russian Government Cyber Activity Targeting Energy and Other Critical Infrastructure Sectors. March 15, 2018. National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center (NCCIC), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), available at: https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA18-074A (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Technical Alert: Petya Ransomware. February 15, 2018. National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center (NCCIC), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), available at: https://www.us-cert.gov/ncas/alerts/TA17-181A (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Analysis Report: Enhanced Analysis of GRIZZLY STEPPE Activity. February 10, 2017. National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center (NCCIC), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), available at: https://www.us-cert.gov/sites/default/files/publications/AR-17-20045_Enhanced_Analysis_of_GRIZZLY_STEPPE_Activity.pdf (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Shear M.D. (2016), Donald Trump, After Dismissing Hacking, Agrees to an Intelligence Briefing. New York Times, December 29, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/29/us/politics/donald-trumprussia-hack.html (accessed: 19.04.2019).

National Security Act of 1947, available at: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ic-legal-reference-book/national-security-act-of-1947 (accessed: 24.03.2019).

Act To reform the intelligence community and the intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the United States Government (Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act) of 2004, available at: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/ogc/ogc-related-menus/ogc-related-content/irtpaof-2004 (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution. 6 January, 2017, p. i, available at: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf (accessed: 14.05.2019).

Donald Trump’s Statement After Intelligence Briefing on Hacking. New York Times, January 6, 2017, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/06/us/politics/donald-trump-statement-hack-intelligencebriefing.html (accessed: 19.04.2019).

O’Keefe, E., Kane, P., Demirjian, K. (2016), McConnell announces Senate probe of suspected Russian election interference: “The Russians are not our friends”. The Washington Post, December 12, available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/12/schumer-on-congressional-probe-ofrussia-i-dont-want-this-to-turn-into-a-benghazi-investigation/ (accessed: 02.03.2019).

Joint Statement on Committee Inquiry into Russian Intelligence Activities. By Richard Burr, US Senator for North Carolina. Press Release, January 13, 2017, available at: https://www.burr.senate.gov/press/releases/joint-statement-on-committee-inquiry-into-russian-intelligence-activities (accessed: 18.05.2019).

Senate Intelligence Committee report July 3, 2018, available at: https://www.burr.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/SSCI%20ICA%20ASSESSMENT_FINALJULY3.pdf (accessed: 27.03.2018).

Joint Statement on Progress of Bipartisan HPSCI Inquiry into Russian Active Measures. Washington, January 25, 2017, available at: https://intelligence.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=211 (accessed: 21.04.2019).

House intelligence Democrats outline how to keep their Russia investigation alive Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/adam-schiff-house-intelligence-democrats/index.html (accessed: 19.04.2019).

Order on Appointment of Special Counsel to Investigate Russian Interference with the 2016 Presidential Election and Related Matters № 3915-2017, available at: https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/967231/download (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Attorney General William Barr’s letter to judiciary committee leaders about the release of the Mueller report, available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/29/politics/barr-letter-mueller-release/index.html (accessed: 12.05.2019).

Report on the Investigation Into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election. Volume I of II, by Special Counsel Robert S.Mueller, III Submitted Pursuant to 28 C.F.R. § 600.8 (c), Washington, D.C. March, 2019, available at: https://www.justice.gov/storage/report_volume2.pdf (accessed: 16.06.2019).

Special Counsel’s Office Statement of Expenditures May 17, 2017 to September 30, 2017. The US Department of Justice, available at: https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1015746/download (accessed: 27.03.2019).

Special Counsel’s Office Statement of Expenditures October 1, 2017 through March 31, 2018. The US Department of Justice, available at: https://www.justice.gov/jmd/page/file/1067411/download (accessed: 27.03.2019).

Special Counsel’s Office Statement of Expenditures April 1, 2018 through September 30, 2018. The US Department of Justice, available at: https://www.justice.gov/sco/page/file/1120106/download (accessed: 27.03.2019).

Special Counsel’s Office Statement of Expenditures October 1, 2018 through May 31, 2019. The US Department of Justice, available at: https://www.justice.gov/jmd/page/file/1190286/download (accessed: 27.03.2019).

Letter from Hon. Lamar Smith, Chairman, the US House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology to Hon. Steven T.Mnuchin, Secretary, US Department of Treasury. June 29, 2017, available at: https://republicans-science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/06_29_2017 CLS %26 Weber — Mnuchin.pdf (accessed: 27.03.2019).

Hirji, Z. (2017), This Congressman Doesn’t Think Climate Science Is Real. He Just Went On A Secret Tour Of The Melting Arctic. BuzzFeedNews, July 14, available at: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/zahrahirji/lamar-smith-tours-the-arctic .io5NmJOqEe (accessed: 27.03.2018).

Dixon, D. (2017), Lamar Smith won’t seek reelection to House, 11 February, available at: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/02/lamar-smith-wont-seek-reelection-to-house-244477 (accessed: 04.05.2019).

Letter from Hon. Lamar Smith, Chairman, the US House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology to Mr. Mark E. Zuckerberg, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Facebook and Mr. Jack Dorsey, Chief Executive Officer, Twitter, Inc. September 26, 2017.

Brooks, R.C. (2017), How Russians Attempted To Use Instagram To Influence Native Americans. BuzzFeedNews, October 27, available at: https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ryancbrooks/russian-trollefforts-extended-to-standing-rock (accessed: 19.03.2018).

Higgins, A. (2014), Russian Money Suspected Behind Fracking Protests. The New York Times, November 30, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/world/russian-money-suspected-behindfracking-protests.html?mcubz=1&mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=44F44A3665FC2D72A688A4A30BD340A1&gwt=pay&assetType=nyt_now (accessed: 27.03.2018).

White, J.B. (2017), Republican accuses Russia of interfering in US energy market. The Independent, September 28, available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-google-facebook-interference-energy-market-fracking-adverts-a7970936.html (accessed: 27.03.2018).

Tsvetkova, N. (2019), Russian Digital Diplomacy: A Rising Cyber Soft Power? Velikaya A., Simons G.(eds). Russia’s Public Diplomacy: Evolution and Practice. Palgrave Macmillan, London, New York, pp. 103–117.

House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology released a Majority Staff Report “Russian Attempts to Influence US Domestic Energy Markets by Exploiting Social Media” (2018), March 1, available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=808676 (accessed: 19.03.2018).

Transcript of Robert S. Mueller III’s testimony before the House of Representative Permanent Select Intelligence Committee (2019), The Washington Post, July 24, available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/transcript-of-robert-s-mueller-iiis-testimony-before-the-house-intelligence-committee/2019/07/24/f424acf0-ad97-11e9-a0c9-6d2d7818f3da_story.html (accessed: 25.07.2019).

Загрузки

Опубликован

23.12.2019

Как цитировать

Yarygin, G. (2019). The many facets of the Russian probe. Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения, 12(4), 450–464. https://doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.404

Выпуск

Раздел

Российско-американские отношения: проблемы и перспективы