Перспективы Дж. Байдена и Д. Трампа накануне президентских выборов 2024 г. сквозь призму испаноязычного электората
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu06.2024.304Аннотация
В статье раскрыты определения ключевых для данной работы терминов «испаноязычный» (Hispanic) и «латино» (Latino) с учетом специфики отечественной и американской науки. Дан портрет испаноязычных избирателей накануне президентских выборов 2024 г. в США, выявлены их основные характеристики, в частности возрастные особенности, уровень образования, штаты, в которых проживают значительные доли испаноязычного населения, и отмечена тенденция роста его избирательной активности. С большей долей вероятности на выборах 2024 г. проголосует рекордное число испаноязычных американцев. Выявлены ключевые проблемы испаноязычных избирателей, которые оказывают непосредственное влияние на их политический выбор. Подавляющее большинство этой части электората принадлежит к среднему рабочему классу, который обеспокоен насущными вопросами экономического характера, а не проблемами расово-этнического неравенства, гендерного равноправия, защиты сексуальных меньшинств, изменения климата и другими, на которых сосредоточилась Демократическая партия. Кроме того, идентифицированы причины падения рейтинга Дж. Байдена у этой категории избирателей. Среди них — непростое экономическое положение и кризис нелегальной иммиграции, который разразился при его администрации, политика 46‑го президента и общие тенденции снижения поддержки Демократической партии. Также предпринята попытка дать прогноз на выборы 2024 г. через призму испаноязычного электората. Впервые в истории США кандидат от Республиканской партии опережает кандидата от Демократической по уровню поддержки. Именно испаноязычные избиратели могут стать той ключевой группой, которая вернет Д. Трампа в Белый дом. Вероятность того, что Дж. Байден вновь одержит победу в ряде колеблющихся штатах благодаря их поддержке, минимальна, что значительно снижает его шансы на победу в грядущих выборах.
Ключевые слова:
испаноязычные избиратели, ключевые проблемы, президентские выборы 2024 г., Дж. Байден, Д. Трамп, колеблющиеся штаты, Аризона, Невада, Джорджия
Скачивания
Библиографические ссылки
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References
Benuto, L. T. and Leany, B. D. (2018), Contemporary Issues in Latino Communities, in: Frisby, C. L. and O’Donohue, W. T. (eds), Cultural Competence in Applied Psychology: An Evaluation of Current Status and Future Directions, Cham: Springer, pp. 748–501.
Revisions to the Standards for the Classification of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity (1997), Office of Management and Budget, Federal Register, vol. 62, no. 210, Thursday, October 30. Notices. Available at: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR‑1997-10-30/html/97-28653.htm (accessed: 19.04.2023).
Krogstad, J. M., Passel, J. S., Budiman, A. and Natarajan, A. (2024), Key facts about Hispanic eligible voters in 2024, Pew Research Center, January 10. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/shortreads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in‑2024/ (accessed: 12.01.2024).
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Georgia Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll (2023), The New York Times, November 5. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/times-siena-georgia.html (accessed: 09.12.2023).
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Статьи журнала «Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Международные отношения» находятся в открытом доступе и распространяются в соответствии с условиями Лицензионного Договора с Санкт-Петербургским государственным университетом, который бесплатно предоставляет авторам неограниченное распространение и самостоятельное архивирование.
